Variety fundamentals

According to the flush iFinD data:

On July 29, Tianjin manganese silicon spot price quoted 6600.00 yuan/ton, compared with the main futures price (6952.00 yuan/ton) discount 352.00 yuan/ton.

On July 26, manganese silicon inventory recorded 4.643 million tons, down 8300 tons from the previous trading day.

Institutional perspective

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[South China View] Silicon manganese: the loss of various producing areas is deepened, the production reduction is expanded in the south, the production in the north of Inner Mongolia is stable in the short term, and the subsequent production reduction is possible. On the demand side, the average daily molten iron production this week has not changed much, but in the early stage of the conversion of the old and new national standards, some steel mills chose to stop the furnace and reduce production, which is a short-term negative for silicon manganese. In addition, the characteristics of terminal steel off-season are obvious, the profit rate of steel mills has declined sharply, and the willingness of steel mills to replenish raw materials is not strong. In general, in the short term, the production yield is limited, the demand for manganese ore is still strong, and the cost of silicon manganese will not collapse quickly. And after the rapid decline in the early stage, most of the negative has been priced, and in the short term, the disk has a certain rebound to repair the valuation.

Ferrosilicon: ferrosilicon started at a high level, the supply has returned to a neutral high level, and the profit of the producing area is still acceptable, and the manufacturer's production reduction is not strong. On the demand side, the average daily output of molten iron this week is little changed, and the demand for ferrosilicon steelmaking is stable in the short term, but the characteristics of the terminal steel off-season are obvious, the profitability of steel mills continues to fall, and the willingness to replenish raw materials is not strong. Ferrosilicon plant library has been increased for two consecutive periods, considering that most manufacturers can still maintain a small profit, the subsequent production reduction is insufficient, the fundamentals of ferrosilicon or continue to deteriorate. All in all, the fundamental point of view does not support long silicon iron, but it is necessary to pay attention to the driving role of silicon manganese rebound on silicon iron, and the rebound is mainly distributed on the operation.

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